Will Bitcoin break down or push toward $97K next?

Video: Bitcoin Came THIS Close to Breaking Down: $97K Next?

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Oct 20, 2026 · based on the channel Gareth Soloway

Bitcoin came within a hair of a major breakdown, flushing to about $79,750 before closing back above its $81,000 support, so the answer to whether $97K is next depends entirely on two price levels: a daily close below $81,000 opens $75,500 and then $67,000, while a push above $87,200 lines up three separate factors near $95,000–$97,000. That is the framework Gareth Soloway lays out in his latest crypto breakdown, and it is a plan built for execution rather than prediction. Traders who want the same fee tier he uses can sign up through the Coinbase tier-one fee link, which also covers accounts that have been idle for 30 days.

Why the bullish structure survived the flush to $79,750

The bullish structure is still intact because Bitcoin hammered the $81,000 line, briefly lost it, and then reclaimed it on the close. That sequence matters more than the intraday low: a wick below support that closes back above it is a test, not a break. Soloway's read is that the market absorbed the flush and refused to convert it into a trend change.

What makes the hold more notable is the backdrop. The AI trade and the Nasdaq have been sliding, and crypto has historically been highly correlated to risk assets in drawdowns. Bitcoin hanging in there while high-beta technology names de-rate is a relative-strength signal, not a guarantee. It tells you sellers had their chance at $79,750 and could not press the advantage.

The two levels that decide the next move in crypto

Everything in this setup reduces to a binary pair of triggers, and both are defined by daily closes rather than intraday noise.

1. $81,000 — the floor. A daily close below this level invalidates the hold and opens the downside roadmap.
2. $87,200 — the ceiling. The upside case only counts once Bitcoin trades above this level; below it, the market is simply ranging.

The distance between them is roughly $6,000, which is why Soloway describes Bitcoin as sitting inside a range and why he carries no swing position, long or short, while price is trapped in the middle. Trading the center of a range is how accounts get chopped up; the edge of the range is where risk is definable.

Three confluences pointing to $95,000–$97,000

Above $87,200, three independent technical factors converge in the $95,000 to $97,000 band, which is what gives the target credibility.

• The rising trend line near $91,000. A trend line drawn from the prior structure is climbing into the low $90,000s, and because it rises over time, it could carry the target into late November rather than requiring an immediate vertical move.
• The measured move off the consolidation. Projecting the height of the recent range from the breakout point produces roughly $96,000 to $97,000.
• The prior pivot highs. Old swing highs sit in the same zone, giving price a memory level to react to.

When a trend line, a measured move and prior pivots land within a couple of thousand dollars of each other, the area becomes a place to take profit or tighten risk rather than a place to chase. The confluence is the signal; the individual levels are just the ingredients.

The bear case and the buy zones below $81,000

A daily close below $81,000 opens $75,500, and that is where Soloway would commit only 25% of a position, keeping the rest of the dry powder for the $67,000 zone. The staged approach is deliberate: nobody knows whether support gives way by a few percent or by a third, so sizing is the tool that survives being early.

He has said publicly, including to Crypto Banter, that he would not go all in at $75,500, and he still treats the cycle low as being in until the market proves otherwise. That is a working assumption, not a religion — a close below $81,000 followed by acceptance lower would be the first evidence against it, and the $67,000 area is where the plan shifts from trimming to loading.

Ethereum and HBAR setups in the altcoin market

Ethereum is range-bound with a heavy buy zone just below $2,000 and a $2,800 retest if price breaks out to the upside. The structure mirrors Bitcoin's: a defined floor where buyers have shown up before, and a resistance level that must clear before the next leg counts.

HBAR offered a swing trade that Soloway took with Smart Money Crypto members on a retrace to what he calls the scene of the crime — the level where price previously broke down or broke out — with a target near $0.10. The lesson is portable across altcoins: wait for price to return to the level that caused the last violent move, define risk just beyond it, and set the target at the next obvious liquidity pocket.

Questions traders keep asking about this crypto setup

Viewers repeatedly raise practical objections that deserve direct answers rather than chart talk.

• "No Bitcoin position at all?" Correct — inside a $6,000 range, the risk-to-reward on either side is poor. A trader with no edge in the middle of a range is not missing anything; they are avoiding whipsaw.
• "How do I short on Coinbase?" Spot platforms are not built for shorting. Short exposure typically requires derivatives or margin products, which carry their own liquidation risk and are not the same instrument as a spot buy zone.
• "Isn't Coinbase too expensive on fees and spread?" That is the most common complaint under these videos, and it is exactly why the tier-one pricing offer exists: sign up through the referral link, or qualify as an idle account or a viewer who joined under someone else's link.
• "I don't know enough to have a game plan." Then the plan is the first trade. Write the entry, the invalidation level and the size before clicking buy; emotion fills the vacuum that a missing plan leaves behind.

Why a written game plan beats emotional trading

The single biggest edge in crypto is deciding what you will do before the market forces you to decide. Soloway's levels are pre-committed: 25% at $75,500, the balance at $67,000, no position in the middle, and upside targets at $95,000–$97,000 only after $87,200 breaks. That structure removes the two most expensive impulses — chasing a green candle and panic-selling a red one.

Useful links

• Coinbase tier-one fee pricing and sign-up offer

Bottom line

Bitcoin survived a test of $81,000 and now sits in a roughly $6,000 range where the next directional move is decided by two clean triggers. Above $87,200, a rising trend line, a measured move and prior pivot highs converge on $95,000–$97,000; below $81,000, the roadmap runs to $75,500 and then $67,000, where the bulk of the buying is planned. Ethereum's sub-$2,000 zone and $2,800 retest, plus the HBAR swing toward $0.10, follow the same logic of trading levels rather than narratives. The analysis comes from Gareth Soloway, whose channel pairs chart work with explicit risk sizing. If you want to trade these levels with lower fees, start through the Coinbase referral link before the next session opens.

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